My Big 10 prediction record is now at 35-5. This weekend has one of the biggest conference games of the year and bunch that look like potential blowouts.

Ohio St
Iowa

This is the game of the Iowa season. If they win this, they become a contender in the BCS race. If they lose, they have to hope to get back to Jan 1. I think this game comes down to QBs. Troy Smith and Drew Tate are excellent, experienced QBs and how each does will determine their team’s success. The past 2 meetings of these teams have seen the home team blow out the visitor. On paper it certainly looks like Iowa is at a disadvantage. The Hawks haven’t looked great in any of their games. Sure, they have had great quarters, but in the nonconference they never wow’d anyone. Iowa looks beat up after the Illinois game and the injuries are mounting.

Both teams have played games that serve as a blueprint for other teams to beat them. Ohio St will look at the first half of the Iowa St game. Iowa will watch the Penn St game.

So what do I think will happen? I think this is the best chance for a team to beat Ohio St. The Buckeye defense has looked like there wasn’t much dropoff from last season, but the Buckeyes haven’t faced a QB as good as Tate. The Texas QB, Colt McCoy is probably better, but doesn’t have the experience. So I think Iowa will be able to score on the Buckeyes. Look for big games from Chandler and Douglas. I’d feel a lot better if Albert Young was playing like Albert Young from last season.

The question is how will Troy Smith do against the Iowa D? The secondary has been getting a lot better with each game, but they also haven’t faced a QB with the skills and experience of Smith. Will Adam Shada step up and make some big plays or make mistakes? Will the D-line be able to stop Pittman without Kanellis? Tough to say. Will they be able to put the pressure on Smith to make mistakes? We’ll see.

Another factor: the game will be on ABC. Iowa never seems to play like themselves when they are on ABC. I don’t know why, but it is something I’ve noticed over the past few years.

Even though the Buckeyes are 7 point road favorites, I have to pick the Hawks. Tate is going to have the game of his career. This is their chance to step up and put themselves in the BCS hunt. There hasn’t been a big upset of a top 5 team yet this year (I’m not counting Notre Dame losing to Michigan, they never deserved to be in the top 5). This is it. The crowd is going to be a factor. Having ESPN College Game Day in town will be a factor. It will be close but Iowa will put it out in the end.

Wisconsin
Indiana

Indiana is riding a two game losing streak to teams a lot worse than Wisconsin. Badgers roll up a big win.

Illinois
Michigan St

Illinois isn’t going to pick up their first Big 10 win in the Ron Zook era this Saturday. Michigan St wins big.

Purdue
Notre Dame

I’ve been picking against Purdue for weeks and they keep winning. Even though I still think Notre Dame is overrated, I don’t think they will lose at home against the Boilermakers.

Northwestern
Penn St

I seriously though Northwestern would be better than this. I thought they might be able to feed off the emotion of losing their coach. I can’t see them beating the Nittany Lions in University Park. Penn St should win big.

Michigan
Minnesota

Michigan lost to Minnesota last season. They will make up for that with a big win against the Gophers this Saturday.

I’m picking only one upset and I feel pretty safe with all the rest. There is only one game to watch this weekend.