This year is the most difficult to predict. On the one hand, the Hawkeyes have the easiest schedule I can remember: no Michigan or Ohio State, home games against Iowa St, Wisconsin and Penn St and one bad away game against the Illini. If the Hawks had this schedule two or three years ago, I’d pick them to go 11-1. Unfortunately the Hawks have disappointed on the field in the past two seasons going 6-7 and 6-6. How much different will this year’s team be from last year’s team that lost to Western Michigan?
Add to this all of the off field distractions with arrest records, coverups, and media coverage. There are two ways to view this one, it will inspire the team to perform better, or it will demoralize the team. It all depends on the team and how they react to the constant bad news out of Iowa City. As a fan you have to hope they feel they have something to prove.
Looking at the schedule there are three groups: likely wins (Maine, Fla Intl), likely losses (Wisconsin, Penn St, Illinois) and toss ups (Iowa St, Pitt, Northwestern, Mich St, Indiana, Purdue and Minnesota). Most years the toss ups list would be shorter. Home games against Iowa St, Northwestern and Purdue, away games against the likes of Indiana and Minnesota didn’t shake the confidence of too many a fan. Last season the Hawks’ record against these teams was a sorry 3-3. In 2006 they went 2-3 and against the same bunch. I’d say it is reasonable to expect another 3-3 record against these teams. That leaves a road game against Pitt. The Panthers showed some life last season and a lot of pundits are expecting more improvement in 2008. Past non-conference road games like the blowout in Tempe and the near loss in Syracuse doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in the Hawks’ chances. So I’ll count that as a loss, which makes a 5-7 season and a third .500 or worse season in a row.
A 5-7 prediction may seem pessimistic. There are two reasons for my pessimism. One, the loss of dependable tailbacks Young and Sims who take pressure off the passing game. A good running game allows the passing game to develop much easier than being forcing into passing situations on every set of downs. Second is the offensive line. Last season they gave up a huge number of sacks. Already Dace Richardson is lost for the season. A strong O-Line gives the QB time to make completions and lets the tailback find openings for chewing up yards. And the fact that Hawks haven’t changed a page in their playbook in 10 years and their opponents know this requires a good O-Line to succeed. The key to the season is the O-Line. If they improve, the Hawks will be better than .500 and right now I don’t see it.
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